| Table 4 |
| Time Series Results |
|
INTERVENTIONS |
|||||
| Jurisdiction | Age | Collision Type | Abrupt Permanent | Gradual Permanent | Comments |
|
NOVA SCOTIA |
16 | ALL |
Estimate = -6.59 p < 0.05 |
Estimate = -19.57 p < 0.01 |
Intervention shows crash numbers are decreasing |
|
25+ | ALL | Not significant | Not significant | Decrease in crashes not significant at the .10 level |
|
16 | CASUALTY | Not significant |
Estimate = -6.83 p < 0.01 |
Intervention shows crash numbers are decreasing |
|
25+ | CASUALTY |
Estimate = 17.47 p < 0.04 |
Estimate = 24.29 p < 0.01 |
Intervention shows crash numbers are increasing |
|
NEW BRUNSWICK |
16 | CASUALTY | Not significant | Not significant |
|
|
25+ | CASUALTY | Not significant | Not significant | Increase in crash numbers is not significant at the 0.10 level |
|
SASKATCHEWAN |
16 | ALL | Not significant | Not significant |
|
|
25+ | ALL | Not significant | Not significant |
|
|
16 | CASUALTY | Not significant |
Estimate = -14.09 p < 0.01 |
All drivers show a decrease in casualty crashes |
|
25+ | CASUALTY | Not significant |
Estimate = -13.90 p < 0.01 |
|
|
MAINE |
16 | ALL | Not significant | Not significant |
|
|
25+ | ALL | Not significant | Not significant |
|
|
16 | CASUALTY | Not significant | Not significant |
|
|
25+ | CASUALTY | Not significant | Not significant |
|
Table 5
| Table
5 |
|||
| Collision
Rates of the 1993 Pre-GDL and 1995 Post-GDL Groups |
|||
| 1993 Pre-Group | 1995 Post-Group | Percent Change | |
| Number of Learners | 11,777 | 8,600 | -27.0% |
| Number of Collisions (24 month period) |
1,671 | 983 | -41.2% |
| Collision Rate* | 1,418.9 | 1,143.0 | -19.4%** |
*per 10,000 learners **z statistic significant, p<0.05 |
|||
Table 6
| Table
6 |
||||
| Age
Composition of the 1993 Pre-GDL and 1995 Post-GDL Program Groups |
||||
| Age | 1993 Pre-Group | 1995 Post-Group | ||
| Number | Percent | Number | Percent | |
| 16 | 8,423 | 71.5% | 6,962 | 81.0% |
| 17 | 970 | 8.2% | 457 | 5.3% |
| 18-19 | 751 | 6.4% | 308 | 3.6% |
| 20-24 | 673 | 5.7% | 315 | 3.7% |
| 25+ | 960 | 8.2% | 558 | 6.5% |
Total |
11,777 |
8,600 |
||
|
Table 7
|
|||
| Collision
Rates for Novice Drivers of Different Ages* |
|||
| Age Issued | |||
| Learners Licence | 1993 Pre-Group | 1995 Post Group | % Change |
| 16 | 1,590.9 | 1,245.3 | -21.7%** |
| 17-24 | 1,031.7 | 814.8 | -21.0%*** |
| 25+ | 875.0 | 501.8 | -42.7%** |
*per 10,000 drivers **z statistic significant p<.05 ***z statistic significant p<.10 |
|||
Table 8
| Table
8 |
|||
| Summary
of Results for Drivers Age 16 |
|||
| Collision Type | |||
| Total Collisions | Casualty Collisions | ||
| 1993 versus 1995 | -24% | -34% | |
| 1993 versus 1996 | -36% | -48% | |
| Predicted vs. Observed Over Three Years |
-37% | -31% | |