Nova Scotia
Demographic Trends Into the Twenty First Century

Conclusions and Issues



Several conclusions are obvious from the above trends which are likely to occur over the next few decades. The first relates to the child population aged 0 to 17. The continuing decline in the numbers (25% decline in the next 25 years) will impact schools, nurseries and the retail market catering to this age group. Only modest changes in the numbers of those in the 18 to 24 age group over the next two decades, however, bodes fairly well for post secondary education facilities and for the retail and service industries that are dependent on this age group. It should be noted, however, that the size of this age group will be very dependent on the availability of employment within Nova Scotia as compared to job opportunities in other regions of the country. In the future, as in the past, this age group will likely be the most mobile part of the work force.



The younger half of the labour market will be hurt by a decline of about 18% in the number of persons between 25 and 44 years of age but this may give increasing opportunities to young persons entering the labour force. The age structure of the labour force, however, will change notably. In 1995 72% of the Nova Scotia labour force was under 44 years of age. Within the next twenty five years this could drop to almost 50%, with the other half of the labour force being over 45 years of age.



The almost 50% gain in those between 55 and 64 years over the next 25 years will heighten the concerns about retirement age and the ability of government and private pension plans to maintain benefit levels. Will these people look at retirement in their fifties, or will they tend to retirement at 65, or possibly beyond that age?

One of the most obvious concerns arising from the ageing of the population is the provision of health care. A 40% growth of those 75 to 84 years and a doubling of the population over 85 years of age will place enormous pressures on health care facilities and budgets.

The housing market will experience a decline of more than 20% in the prime group, 25 to 34 years, for buying new single family homes but the condo and rental markets may capitalize on the large growth (over 80%) within the 55 to 74 age bracket.



All of the above numbers merely represent one scenario of growth for the province, however, the future age structure of the population will vary only marginally, regardless of the overall rate of growth or decline. While some of the future demography of the province is unknown, the most important characteristics of the future population are easily discernable at this time and thus can be used as inputs in planning for the future.

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