Nova Scotia
Demographic Trends Into the Twenty First Century

Overview



Twenty years from now over eighty percent of the population now residing in Nova Scotia will still be alive, however, they will be twenty years older than they are today. Not all of them will still reside here at that time and those that remain here will be supplemented by new births over that time period and by persons of all ages migrating into Nova Scotia from other provinces and other countries.

In the next twenty year period profound changes will occur in the composition of the provincial population. Within a decade deaths will begin to outnumber births and any overall growth of the population will come from migration, primarily migration from other countries. The population of the province could begin to decline before the end of this twenty year period unless the level of net in-migration increases. The ageing of the population will have profound affects on the education system, the work force and health and other programs to assist the elderly.

At July 1, 1996 the Nova Scotia total population was estimated to be 942,800. This represented a growth of 100,000 within the past twenty years. One might conclude that it should thus be relatively easy for the population to grow by 60,000, and top the one million mark, within the next twenty years. Notable changes in demographics, however, indicate that this will not likely happen by 2015 and most likely the magical population of one million will never be reached.

Much has been written about these changing demographic trends at the national level in the past few years. Let's have a look at the trends in Nova Scotia that have occurred in recent decades and look forward as far as the year 2021 to see where we might be headed.



At the turn of the twentieth century Nova Scotia accounted for 8.6% of the total Canadian population. By the middle of the century we had dropped to 4.6% and by the end of the century we will likely drop to 3% of the national total. Much of this proportional decline was due to very strong population growth in Central and Western Canada, however, net out-migration also contributed to slower growth in all of the eastern provinces. This out-migration from Nova Scotia peaked in the late fifties and early sixties, averaging a net loss of 8,000 per year in that period.



There have been dramatic changes in the Nova Scotia population and its composition over the past several decades and more dramatic changes are in store over the next twenty five years.

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