Year-over-year (March 2024 vs March 2023)

The inflation rate slowed to 2.6% in the European Union and to 2.4% in the Euro Area in March 2024.

The fastest inflation was reported in Romania (6.7%) while the slowest inflation rates were in Lithuania and Finland (0.4% and 0.6% respectively).                                       

Energy prices declined 1.6% in the European Union and declined 1.8% in the Euro Area in March 2024.

Food price inflation has continued to slow but remains elevated at 1.2% for the European Union and 1.8% in the Euro Area in March 2024. 

Excluding the impacts of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices year-over-year inflation was slowed to 3.3% in the European Union and 2.9% in the Euro Area in March 2024.

Source: Eurostat; Eurostat Data

Nova Scotia’s all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.3% year-over-year in March 2024, up from 2.8% year-over-year in February. March all items CPI was up 0.5% compared the previous month.

Nova Scotia's inflation has been slowing after peaking at 9.3% in June 2022.  Inflation started to accelerate again in July 2023, particularly due to gasoline prices, as the large monthly drop in July 2022 is no longer included in 12-month calculations while Federal carbon charges came into effect over the summer.  Compared to last fall when OPEC cuts resulted in higher energy prices, energy price inflation has slowed. Shelter price growth has also slowed but remains elevated. 

Nationally, consumer prices increased 2.9% year-over-year in March 2024, up from 2.8% in February. Inflation was highest in Québec and Alberta and slowest in Manitoba. Statistics Canada noted the top contributors to year-over-year inflation were the mortgage interest cost and rent indexes.

The most significant upward contributors (combining price increase as well as share of the consumption basket) to Nova Scotia's 3.3% year-over-year inflation were: rent, mortgage interest cost, gasoline, electricity, and travel tours. 

The largest downward year-over-year contributions were from: telephone services, men's and women's clothing, homeowners replacement cost, and recreational equipment and services (excluding RVs).

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's all items CPI was up 0.6% from February to March 2024. National prices were also up 0.6% with increases reported for all provinces. Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec reported the fastest percentage growth on a monthly basis. Alberta reported the slowest monthly increase.

Major upward contributors to Nova Scotia's monthly consumer prices were: travel tours, gasoline, traveller accommodation, inter-city transportation, and recreational equipment and services (excluding RVs). The main downward contributions were from: fresh fruit and vegetables, paper, plastic and aluminum foil supplies, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, and sugar and confectionery.

Energy prices play a significant role in inflation rates. Nova Scotia's energy prices were up 8.9% from March 2023 to March 2024.  Year-over-year energy prices were up 2.8% nationally with eight provinces reporting higher energy prices. Alberta reported the fastest growth (followed by Nova Scotia) while Manitoba reported the largest decline.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's energy prices increased 1.1% from February to March 2024. National energy prices were up 2.1% with all provinces reporting higher prices compared to the previous month. British Columbia reported the largest monthly increase in energy prices, while Quebec posted the smallest monthly increase.

Because fuel oil for home heating is a larger component of Nova Scotia's consumption basket than in other provinces, Nova Scotia's energy prices (and overall inflation) are more sensitive to fluctuations in the global price of crude oil.  Nova Scotia's energy prices accelerated dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.  Nova Scotia energy prices peaked in June 2022, and then trended down before rising substantially in October and November 2022 as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production to raise global oil prices.  Energy prices in Nova Scotia rose again in August and September 2023 following the introduction of the federal carbon levy in July. Since then, energy prices have declined or grown at a slower pace as these major events fall out of the calculation for inflation. In March 2024, energy prices rose 8.9% compared to March 2023, the fastest year-over-year growth since September 2023.

In March 2024, gasoline prices increased 10.0% compared to a year ago in Nova Scotia. Eight provinces reported higher gasoline prices, with the fastest growth in Alberta and Nova Scotia. 

Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation for fuel oil was 3.0%, the fastest growth among provinces. Nationally, the fuel oil and other fuels index declined 2.7% compared to March 2023.

Food price inflation was 3.0% in Nova Scotia (March 2024 vs March 2023).  National food prices increased 3.0% in March. Food prices were up in all provinces; Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador reported the highest food price inflation while Ontario reported the slowest food price growth. All provinces reported a deceleration in year-over-year food price inflation in March 2024.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's food prices declined 0.5% from February to March. National food prices declined 0.2% with four provinces reporting higher prices on a monthly basis. The fastest growth was in Newfoundland and Labrador while British Columbia and Nova Scotia reported the largest monthly declines.

Food and energy prices are heavily influenced by volatile global commodity markets. Nova Scotia's underlying inflation rate excluding food and energy was 2.7% from March 2023 to March 2024. Nationally, inflation excluding food and energy was 2.9%.  Quebec reported the fastest growth while Manitoba reported the slowest growth in inflation excluding food and energy prices.

On a monthly basis, Nova Scotia's inflation for all items excluding food and energy was up 0.7% from February to March 2024.  Nationally, prices for all items excluding food and energy were up 0.7% with increases in all provinces. Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec reported the fastest monthly increases while Manitoba reported the smallest increase.

Year-over-year shelter cost inflation was 6.9% in Nova Scotia in March 2024, up from 5.0% in February. National shelter prices were up 6.5% with increases in all provinces. Alberta reported the largest year-over-year increase in shelter prices while Prince Edward Island reported the slowest increase.

Monthly shelter costs were up 0.1% in Nova Scotia from February to March 2024.  Nationally, shelter costs were up 0.4% with increases in all provinces except Alberta. Prince Edward Island and British Columbia reported the fastest monthly growth in shelter prices and Nova Scotia reported the slowest growth.

Among detailed food products with available data, Nova Scotia's year-over-year inflation was fastest for fats and oils, followed by beef and sugar and confectionary.  The largest year-over-year price decline was for pork.

In detailed shelter cost components, electricity reported the fastest year-over-year price increase, followed by home and mortgage insurance and rent. Homeowners replacement cost and home maintenance and repairs reported the only year-over-year declines.

Household operations/furnishings costs were down 1.5% overall.  Prices fell fastest for telephones and utensils/tableware/cookware. The largest increases were in internet and cleaning products.

Clothing and footwear prices were down 6.5% year-over-year in March with declines in all sub-components except clothing materials and services.

Health and personal care costs were up 4.0% year-over-year on gains in all sub-components led by personal care services.

Overall transportations costs were up 3.4% year-over-year in March. City bus had the largest decline while gasoline had the largest increase.

Nova Scotia's overall prices for recreation, education and reading were up 5.1% from March 2023 to March 2024, with faster increases for travel services/accommodations and purchase/operation of recreational vehicles. Prices declined the fastest for recreational equipment/services (excluding RVs) compared to March 2023.

Nova Scotia's prices for alcohol, tobacco and recreational cannabis were up 3.7% year-over-year with growth in all categories. Alcohol from licensed establishments had the largest increase, followed by beer from stores.

Trends

Since the start of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, inflation for all items has generally been in the 0-4% range.  Periods of above target inflation are typically followed by periods of slow price growth or declines. The most recent acceleration in inflation was the strongest since the inflation-targeting era began, though this inflation is starting to fade with tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.   

Many of these periods of accelerated and slowed inflation are attributable to volatile commodity prices, especially energy prices.  Once the more volatile commodity prices are excluded, inflation in Nova Scotia has largely been below 2% for much of the last 20 years.  However, the recent rise in inflation through 2021-2023 spreads beyond commodity prices, resulting in the longest period under the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime with Nova Scotia's CPI excluding food and energy above 3%.

The Bank of Canada examines 'core' measures of inflation that are intended to remove the effects of volatile components and capture underlying inflation trends that are more connected to capacity in the Canadian economy.  Core measures of inflation may also indicate where all items inflation is headed. 

Canada's core measures of inflation remained mostly at or below the Bank's target of 2% for over a decade prior to 2021.  However, after prices accelerated in 2022, core inflation measures also started to rise, peaking at over 6% for the CPI-common measure before declining. Compared to the previous month, year-over-year core inflation measures in March 2024 were down for all core measures: CPI-common (2.9%), CPI-median (2.8%), CPI-trim (3.1%), CPI-core (2.0%).

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01  Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Table 18-10-0256-01  Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions

Year-over-year (March 2024 vs March 2023)

All items: Consumer prices in Nova Scotia increased 3.3%. The national average inflation was 2.9%. In Halifax consumer prices increased 3.6%.

All items excluding food and energy: Nova Scotia consumer prices outside of food and energy increased 2.7%. This was below the national average increase of 2.9%.

Month-over-month (March 2024 vs February 2024)

All items: Consumer prices in Nova Scotia increased 0.6%. Nationally, consumer prices also increased 0.6% compared to the previous month. In Halifax consumer prices rose 0.4%.

All items excluding food and energy: Nova Scotia consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.7% month over month in March 2024. Nationally, consumer prices outside of food and energy were also 0.7% higher compared to the previous month.

Source: Statistics Canada.  Table  18-10-0004-01   Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted

The United States Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) for All Urban Consumers increased 3.5% year-over-year in March 2024. Compared to March 2023, the energy index rose 2.1%, the first increase since the 12-month period ending in February 2023. The food index rose 2.2% and the shelter index was up 5.7% year-over-year.

Compared to the previous month, the seasonally adjusted CPI was up 0.4% in March 2024, the same increase as the previous month. The food index edged up 0.1% and the energy index rose 1.1% on higher prices for gasoline, electricity and piped gas service. 

The CPI excluding food and energy rose 3.8% compared to March 2023. The CPI excluding food and energy index (seasonally adjusted) was up 0.4% compared to February 2024, the same rate as the previous two months.

Note: Canada and Nova Scotia March 2024 CPI figures will be released on April 16, 2024.

Sources: 

Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-01  Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted

US Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using the FRED API.